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Weighs one pound. Costs Four Bucks.
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Open Microphone IX
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Wow. Look at all of you starving for local election coverage. 240 people have visited BurlingtonPol so far today. That's a wicked lot for this blog. And really for the size of Burlington. You poor things. You can't get enough of the action packed drama. Who will win? Dan Smith? Bob Kiss? Andy, Kurt, or that other guy? And what's going to happen to the city council when five, count 'em five seats change hands? Inquiring minds want to know. "I want to know."
So I'd thought I'd officially open it up so you don't have to awkwardly keep commenting on the last string. Talk amongst yourselves while I go back to transcribing my interview with Kurt Wright as fast as I can.
Dan Smith will win. He is the most qualified non-partisan politician out there. It is time for real change her in Burlington, and the voters know it. Dan's fresh face and bright new ideas make him the best man for the job.
In the top two on the first round will be (in no particular order) Wright and Kiss. That's a guess. Saying who will take the second round vote would be a wild guess.
That's a weird question. The people who live here are. And folks like you in exile too, I suppose.
3) How do those values differ from the other candidates' values?
Bob believes in a defined benefit (We're all in this together.) Andy believes in a defined contribution. (You're on your own.) Bob believes gay people should have the right to marry. Kurt isn't sure what to say on that issue.
I don't like how Montroll implies that he cares more about the city because he has children. I hate when people with kids say that. It's not really true. Anyone who lives here cares about the city. Besides, his kids are statistically unlikely to actually live here when they grow up.
(And, yes, I have kids.)
None of the candidates strike me an anti-family or anti-children. None of them will turn the city into a place where one would not want to raise their kids.
I don't like how Montroll implies that he cares more about the city because he has children.
Ah. Very astute Charity. I've noticed that too. Andy's been hammering at the "I have kids" thing hard. It's almost like he's making a dig against Dan and Kurt for not having kids, and Bob for not having a biological child (Bob has one adult step-son.)
I attended the final debate last night and came away impressed with all three candidates who were present. I think they all care a great deal about this City.
Addressing the values proposition, my personal opinion is that their position on gay marriage is irrelevant. I also see their positions on solving the pension problem not as a values stance but rather a question of fiscal responsiblity.
Whoever puts the Green candidate ahead of Kurt and Dan is drinking something they shouldn't. That is beyond laughable.
Based on the discussions I've heard and the coverage in the media, I think that Bob will lead on the first ballot followed by Dan, Kurt and Andy. Kurt supporters will NOT support Bob so I would expect Dan to get a super majority of Kurt's votes and maybe half of Andy's, giving him enough MO to overcome Kiss.
Frankly, I think the second place finisher on the first ballot will be our next mayor and I think Smith will win this one.
However, I also thought Hinda would win and she ended up losing. So, anything can happen. 4 more days!
It comes down to the final two: Kiss and Montroll.
The Green is first to be cut. That's a no-brainer.
Next will be Dan Smith. Doesn't seem like Burlingtonians want GBIC buying the mayor's seat (hat tip to 7Days for clarity on the elusive Smith). But Smith's votes will be shared by the remaining three candidates courtesy of Smith's cross-party boast.
The trick is answering who is next. To that, it's worth looking at some important facts: 1) we're in a recession and Burlington generally blames Republicans for the mess; 2) incumbents in Vermont are notoriously difficult to beat; and 3) like it or not, the Dems have a strong contingent but not a strong leader in the race.
For these reasons, I think Kurt is the 3rd elimination with most votes going to Kiss. Granted, those may be 3rd place votes behind Smith, but Smith is eliminated at this point.
This puts Kiss over the top to win.
Andy will be a legitimate factor in the tallies, but he's shown the same divisiveness that caused him to lose in two other primaries. Dems need a stronger candidate to win.
Kiss. Like the previous poster wrote, incumbents are difficult to beat. Besides, even in this Republican-lead recession, Burlington has held up very well. The mayor will be thanked in the form of votes.
Montroll will be Smith's and Kiss' bridesmaid -- but never the bride. Wright will get the faux-suburbanite vote from the NNE which won't be enough to make a real dent.
Kiss will top 40% of first round votes. Smith will place.
Dan is going to win in my opinion. He has the best organization, has knocked on the most doors, has the best message, and he has the most money. He will get a lot of first place votes and even more second place votes. While that does not translate into a definite win by any standard he has put himself in a position to win. This race would not even be interesting unless Dan was in it. Not many people would really care that much. You have to give Dan credit for that. He has made this race fascinating to watch
I'm voting for Kurt but I believe that he will come in second. Voting for Dan Smith second just because I don't like Andy and Bob is not decisive enough for my taste. My hunch is that Smith will likely win on the third ballot.
Dan "Smiley" Smith: The bright, dashing kid who always won popularity contests. Scoop? He's new, bright and with a fresh perspective! I'm drooling.
"Sideshow" Bob Kiss: Never really the center of attention and is always a second thought, yet never taken seriously. He got organized and beat the crap out of Hinda. This time? Not so hot. Others? The election will answer the question.
Kurt Wright: He's a Republican. He's capable for the job, just on the wrong side of many an issue in public opinion. DOA.
Andy Montroll: Capable as well. Just as silent and low-profile as Bob. You get two silent guys and somehow I get an idea that this is a mime popularity contest. Doesn't make the cut. Have Smith and Wright out and he would have a chance.
Green dude: Goes by the name of Simpson. Is known to curse a lot, especially to the media. Too bad his first name isn't Homer. He would be the darling of our Queen City.
That would be crazy if a candidate won on the third ballot but it looks more and more possible. It is going to be SO close. We are only talking about 10,000-12,000 votes overall in this election split 4 ways pretty evenly. Anything could happen, literally.
it's definitely between kiss and wright. montroll 3rd, smith 4th.
i've heard people are trying to be 'strategic' with their second place votes... but whoever votes for smith and montroll with an unlikely second choice (i.e. green) will certainly regret trying to game the system.
hopefully people vote their preferences, if they don't they are essentially wasting their vote.
Its definitely not between Kiss and Wright. Smith is a little ahead of Wright and Kiss and Montroll is destined to come in 4th. Montroll's second place votes are going to decide the election and I think most of those votes go to Smith.
I agree: it's between Kiss and Wright. Tonight, Wright's running a TV ad on WCAX. A well done piece. On the first vote, he'll win wards 4,5, and 7, maybe by a wide margin.
All I know is Bob Kiss has to go. I"m a liberal guy but his administration has been more tight lipped and secretive then most in recent history! He can't stand up to anyone and his handling of the Cate investigation was a complete debacle. Nobody still knows whats going on there. And now Wayne Gross is doing his best to have the Farmers Market removed from City Hall Park for the first time in 27 years! Bob Kiss may be a nice guy but he doesn't seem to have much of a backbone. I served on the Open Government Committee and I can almost promise you that most of our suggestions fell on deaf ears thanks to Bob. He never met a closed door he didn't like.
I'd expect to see Montroll and Smith near the top but am worried they could split the vote and hand things over to King Wright.
Dan all the way. I don't care if it is any of the other three, they will all be pretty much the same. Dan is the only one that is different and brings the fresh look at city politics that we need and that will put him over the top in a couple days.
Does it really matter, people are just going to make up names anyway. Do you think I would ever actually use my real name on this?? For all you know I could actually be Bob Kiss, however that is unlikely seeing that he probably does not know how to use a computer.
Thanks Haik. Plenty of people have no problem with using their real names or consistently using the same fake name... it's not that difficult and gives your comments more credibility.
Although it is fun...we don't know how big turnout is going to be and and what exterior factors will affect this race.
Any one of these four credible candidates could win. But for transparency sake, I am voting for Dan Smith. Will he win? I have no idea. Remember, I'm voting my preference not by some strategy.
Fuck you Haik. You are a Nazi with you bull shit rules. It proves you hate the constitution the way you control the information, you fucking son of a bitch. Fuck you
Haik, let me take some issues with your response to my three questions.
1) Can you really tell me that the values you named are only those of Kiss, and the other candidates do not share them? I would find that very hard to believe. The point being, if those are Kiss' values, he doesn't offer anything the others do not. What's special about his vision?
3) Your answer here is a vague and really, the gay marriage issue is kinda pointless. That's a question you ask a republican to show the work why republicans are behind the times. I'm sure you could ask Kiss, Smith, or Montroll a question to which you know and do not like the answer.
2) Saved this for last, because I disagree most with it. "The people who live here"? No, Haik. SOMEpeople's views are represented by a Progressive agenda. While Kiss may have the entire city's best interest in mind, its wrong and insulting to presume his values are everybody's values. Same goes for all candidates, all parties. But, I think the recurring theme of Burlington (any by proxy, Burlingtontians) being a "progressive city" over generalizes certain realities. Sure, some of the policies are more progressive than you'd see in other places. But no law/policy passes with 100% approval. There's a reason Paul, Craig, and Kurt on the Council. And Andy and other Dems, for that matter.
While its great to rip on Smith supporters, given your clear pro-Kiss stance--after all, this is your space--the values of the people of Burlington are not, nor will they be represented by one person or party.
I've never expressed that I'm a Dan Smith supporter -- nor am I -- just an observer from outside of Burlington who thinks it's a fascinating race.
If I lived in Burlington (or, for that matter, was old enough to vote), I really have no idea how I'd rank the candidates. Andy has been pretty bad in debates, and when it comes to being the face of the city, I cannot imagine him fulfilling that roll. The secrecy around business at City Hall, along with some pretty lowball politics from Leopold, doesn't do anything for me either. I'd have an incredibly hard time pulling the lever for a Republican, and just as difficult a time for one who hasn't proven to me that he's really any sort of "Independent" leader, but rather someone who thinks it's a more comfortable label for a Burlington election.
I think Smith's going to come out on top because while I'm not big on him from a policy perspective, he's put together a pretty impressive campaign. In a race with four viable candidates, the independent label and a staff presence that's been organizing for him, I think he'll get the boost from second place votes to carry him past 50%.
*** 1)Jonas: What's special about his [Kiss's]vision?
1)Haik: Who am I? The Amazing Kreskin? What's special about anybody's vision? I defy you to tell me what's special about your vision, let alone anybody else's. I don't know.
3)Jonas: I'm sure you could ask Kiss, Smith, or Montroll a question to which you know and do not like the answer. 3)Haik: Like What?
2)Jonas: "The people who live here"? No, Haik. SOMEpeople's views are represented by a Progressive agenda. 2) You asked "who are the people of Burlington," not who share's Kiss's values. I agree that Burlington is a lot more conservative than it's characterized.
*** Ivan: 'Cause they're from the New North End?
Haik: No silly. Because they won their elections. If all you had to do to get on the city council was be from the new north end, then there would be like 20,000 people on the city council.
*** Matthew Breuer:I've never expressed that I'm a Dan Smith supporter -- nor am I --
Haik: That's OK. You won him one of his points back anyway by enabling your blogger profile.
Enough anonymous and pseudonymous pro-Dan comments have been left on this blog for this election. It's called astrotufing and it's designed to create an impression of broad support. However depth of support is hardly demonstrated by anonymity.
I've been through all of this before. There is no way to game the system. Just be honest when you blog everybody.
Am I ever going to finish Kurt's interview or what?
Funny thing...apparently I wrote I wrote a letter to the editor railing against Bob Kiss as Mayor. I got no phone call from the Free Press confirming that I sent the letter, they got my name wrong and I never gave permisson to publish such a letter.
When I worked at UVM Student Government Association as a committee chairman that dealt with the local government on student safety and lighting issues -- it is true that I had differences of opinion with the Mayor. But it was always professional and cordial -- never outlandish and nasty like the letter I supposedly wrote in today's Free Press.
So, always keep an eye on the media and make sure they are printing accurate information about elections and candidates along with the simple issue: who is writing the information.
You named the following as Kiss' values: "Fiscal responsibility. Practicality. Thoughtful development. Citizen participation. Environmental responsibility." My point was that who among the candidates wouldn't cite the same set of values as their own? Does Kurt want to start a huge bonfire of city cash? Is Montroll looking to turn Pine St. into a bigger superfund site? Does The Green guy want to build 4 Wal-Marts? Is Smith hoping to become a benevolent dictator and keep people from voting? No. Soooo, what does Kiss offer that's different? The original poster suggests Kiss has a particular set of values. You articulated what you believe them to be. I say, that list is generic and not attributable to any party or person.
2) Yes, you could ask Bob what exactly Leopold does, what his relationship is with him, and why it seems he makes all the decisions. You could ask him why Leopold took a potshot at Montroll and Bib seems to have no control over his subordinate. But those would be relevant questions. So instead, you could ask him what his religious beliefs are or why he doesn't have his own kids. We might no like the answers, and more importantly, such questions and answers have no real bearing on the election. Kinda like pointing out Wright doesn't support gay marriage. Because as mayor, its not like he'd have the power to do much about it.
3) Remember, you're defending this post: "Kiss will win because he represents the values of the people of Burlington." That implies Kiss represents all Burlingtonian values. I asked who the people of Burlington are, in the context of such a statement that indicates some massive uniformity.
While its fine to believe in one candidate's ability to lead the city over other candidates, there remain important questions about what Kiss himself has done. These vague statements about fiscal responsibility do no resonate...especially when the claim of no general fund tax raising is offset by the reality of other taxes going up. Moreover, when speaking in terms of city finances, can anyone distinguish what Kiss has done vs. what Leopold has done? Which is to say, if Kiss goes, and Leopold stays, whats the difference? Ok, there's the Moran plant. Three votes later, and there's a plan....kind of. Circ hyway remains DOA. "Job creation" has been put forward...yet, not exactly proven. So, if you're going to continue to soft-stump for Kiss, the reasoning of "well, the city hasn't burned down and the other guys have never been mayor" seems...tepid at best.
By all accounts, Bob's done a decent job managing certain aspects of the city. And other aspects have not gone well (Boathouse, pensions, etc). Why are those enough to overlook, instead of changing leadership?
I contacted them, left a message and hope they can remove it. Plus, there is no Scott McCarthy in the phone book and the coincidence is too great.
I just want a clarification and hopefully the removal of the letter from the website. Already emailed Bob's campaign and apologized for the misunderstanding.
Here is my prediction of what will happen. The turnout will be around 13,000. I get this number from looking at the 2006 mayoral election with a turnout of almost 10,000 and a 2008 presidential election turnout of 21,000. There is alot of interest in this race though so 13,000 seems like a reasonable estimate. Only a small percentage of college students will turnout for this election combined with school break and alot of people out of town. The number of absentee ballots is way up this year though so that is another indicator that it will be a pretty good turnout.
First Round (approximates) Bob Kiss 3600 Kurt Wright 3400 Dan Smith 3100 Andy Montroll 2900
Montroll Eliminated
Second Round Kiss 3600 + 750 = 4350 Dan Smith 3100 + 1100 = 4200 Kurt Wright 3400 + 600 = 4000
350 votes exhausted Kurt Wright Eliminated
Third Round Dan Smith 4200 + 1900 =6100 Bob Kiss 4350 + 500 = 4850 -500 to Montroll who was eliminated -500 votes exhausted
Dan Smith wins on the 3rd ballot. Controversy erupts over absentee ballots and the slim margin Dan beats Kurt by in the second round. Recount is contemplated by Kurt finally gives in.
-Dan has a great chance if he can avoid being eliminated in the first round. He will get the majority of Montrolls and Wrights 2nd place votes IF he can get out of the first round. It is going to be soooooo close between Dan and Montroll for 3rd but I think Dan pulls just enough support to get in ahead of Montroll.
If other people have predictions like this throw them up. But this is how I'm calling it, Dan in a 3rd round landslide.
Honestly now that I think about it I am not sure how IRV works for the 3rd round. In that 3rd round, do they only count 3rd place votes or do they count the second place votes of the candidate who was eliminated second? Anybody know. Maybe I am missing something...
They always go to the second place votes of those whose candidates have been eliminated (unless the candidate for whom you voted second has also been eliminated, in which case they go to your third place vote, and so forth).
Again, provide proof. You haven't so shut up. Hearsay doesn't hold up in court and it doesn't hold up in elections.
Plus, I've heard that Kurt is supported by Douglas. But then again, I have no proof or written documentation. So, I'll shut up and you should too until you can provide us with a Martha Rainville and Jim Douglas statement saying: "I am supporting Dan Smith for Mayor of Burlington."
I didn't say they were supporting Dan Smith for mayor. I merely noted that Dan Smith had supported them previously. He apparently helped coach Rainville for her debate. Now, this is not even a problem, except that some folks seem to see him as somebody without ties to a poplitical party, when he's been apparently (moderate) Republican.
Finally, here's a comment from Green Mountain Daily: "What's being brushed under the rug by Dan Smith are the obvious examples of conservative (hey, why not call them Republican?) values on his tiny tiny record. He worked for Jim Douglas! He coached Martha Rainville in her run against Peter Welch - in 2006 - that wasn't that long ago, folks - I think anyone who would support Rainville vs. Welch would be hard-pressed to call himself an environmentalist! He lobbied against stricter pollution controls for runoff into Lake Champlain! & I haven't even done any independent research - this is all information reported in Seven Days or The Free Press. He uses a lot of vague inspirational phrases and sells his youth and inexperience as an asset - he is explicitly trying to ride in on Obama's coattails but he does not share all of Obama's values."
Please, he is not that conservative. If you want to talk about a real conservative look at Kurt, who has a documented track record in the legislature that amount to being anti-environmental. Dan voted for Clinton and Obama and is pro gay marriage. Yes he is fiscally responsible, is that really a bad thing? Yes he is an expert on the green economic development, is that a bad thing? He coached Rainville because he was the foremost expert on those issues and happened to be friends with Rainville, is that a bad thing? Stop attacking Dan for being so conservative because he is not. He is a truly independent candidate that can see both sides of an issue, unlike the other 3 candidates who are too close minded to find by partisan solutions. Dan is the only reason this race is interesting.
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If I had to throw a prediction out right now, I'd say
1st Ballot:
Wright
Smith
Kiss
Montroll
With Montroll and Kiss ballots putting Smith on top.